Imagine urgently needing high-tech chips, only to find air freight space as scarce as concert tickets with prices skyrocketing. This isn't alarmism but the current reality of international air cargo markets. Structural capacity shortages are creating ripple effects across global trade, with the financial burden ultimately reaching consumers' wallets.
This analysis examines the current state of global air cargo capacity, explains its pricing impacts, and forecasts future trends to help businesses navigate this complex landscape.
I. Capacity Constraints: A Tale of Two Markets
Global air cargo capacity isn't uniformly scarce but exhibits a "structural tight balance" with striking disparities:
- Sluggish fleet growth: Airlines have significantly slowed new aircraft acquisitions. From 2020 through 2025, global fleet growth reached just 17%, with 2026 projections at merely 3%—far below global trade demand.
- Chronic delivery delays: Production bottlenecks at Boeing and Airbus, compounded by engine manufacturer slowdowns, have created massive order backlogs. New aircraft orders now face delivery timelines extending beyond 2027, with dedicated freighters experiencing a 12% shortage.
- Aging fleet retirements: The EU's ReFuelEU regulations imposing stricter sustainable fuel requirements will force early retirement of older freighters, further constraining capacity.
- Unreliable belly capacity: While passenger aircraft belly space has recovered to 105% of pre-pandemic levels (constituting 60-70% of international air cargo), its volatility makes long-term logistics planning precarious as passenger route adjustments directly affect availability.
- Geographic imbalances: Asia-Pacific leads with 7.4% capacity growth while North and Latin America declined 2.7%. Asia-Europe routes face 15% longer transit times due to Middle Eastern transshipments, and transpacific capacity has been redirected to higher-margin Asia-Europe markets.
II. Pricing Dynamics: A Multilayered Impact
Structural capacity shortages influence air freight rates through several mechanisms:
- Supply-demand fundamentals: With 2026 demand projected at 4.7% against 3% supply growth, the gap will directly elevate rates—particularly during e-commerce peaks and high-value shipments. Southeast Asia routes remain exceptions, showing rate declines due to surplus capacity.
- Cost pressures: Fuel constitutes 22% of total rates (up from 15% last year), while Europe's sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates add $0.15-$0.20/kg—environmental costs ultimately borne by shippers.
- Route divergence: Asia-North America rates surged 45% amid Red Sea disruptions, while Europe rates hit record highs. Conversely, westbound transatlantic rates declined, requiring meticulous route selection.
- Cargo stratification: High-value goods (electronics, luxury items) command 25% premiums over standard freight, while industrial commodities saw 12-15% decreases.
- Contract evolution: Long-term contracts (6+ months) now represent 22% of agreements (up 10 percentage points year-over-year), providing stability against spot market volatility.
III. Future Outlook: Inevitable Rate Increases?
Key projections for global air cargo pricing:
- Sustained rate elevation: 5-8% global rate increases expected in 2026, with Europe likely seeing the steepest climbs due to supply-demand imbalances and environmental regulations.
- Widening rate disparities: High-value versus standard cargo price differentials may exceed 80%, while e-commerce shipments will maintain moderate rates through dynamic pricing.
- Contract dominance: Long-term agreements will continue gaining market share, gradually diminishing spot market influence on pricing.
The international air cargo market presents both challenges and opportunities. Businesses must monitor developments closely, adapt logistics strategies, and prioritize long-term contracts and optimized routing to mitigate costs and ensure supply chain resilience amid rising rates.