When supply chain mechanisms falter, how can businesses find solutions in an increasingly volatile market? Industry leaders from trucking, parcel, and less-than-truckload (LTL) sectors recently convened at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) EDGE conference in National Harbor, Maryland, to analyze current market conditions and outline critical strategies for shippers preparing for 2026.
The session, titled "The State of Ground Transportation," was moderated by Mike Levans, Group Editorial Director of Peerless Media LLC, and featured insights from Jeff Tucker, CEO of Tucker Company Worldwide; Robert Persuit, Senior Business Development Director at ShipMatrix; and Al Webb, Vice President of Sales at PITT OHIO.
Trucking: Persistent Downturn with Regulatory Storms Ahead
Tucker presented a sobering assessment of the trucking industry's ongoing freight recession. Comparing pre-pandemic 2019 data with current figures, he noted a 30% increase in active carriers (from 245,000 to 325,000) and a 22% growth in truck drivers (from 2.6 million to 3.2 million), while freight volumes have remained essentially flat.
"We saw glimmers of recovery late last year, but the first months of 2026 have fallen short of expectations," Tucker said. "Pharmaceutical stockpiling before tariffs took effect and deferred energy projects due to material cost uncertainties aren't helping. Maintenance work dominates currently, keeping downward pressure on rates."
Tucker highlighted several regulatory concerns that could significantly impact capacity, including potential disqualification of CDL drivers holding visas and new English proficiency requirements. He warned these measures could remove 200,000-700,000 drivers from the workforce if fully enforced.
Parcel Market: Frenzied Competition and Shifting Dynamics
Persuit characterized the parcel market as "crazy," describing a series of disruptive developments since January. Major carriers like UPS and FedEx are losing market share to regional players and retail giants, with Amazon now delivering more daily parcels than either traditional carrier.
"In 2019, UPS, FedEx and USPS handled 86% of domestic parcels. By 2024, that fell to 64%," Persuit noted. "Amazon surpassed both UPS and FedEx in daily volume, while Walmart now delivers billions of packages same-day or next-day through its Spark network. This demand shift is permanent."
The proliferation of regional carriers like LSO, OnTrac, and LaserShip has created unprecedented negotiating power for shippers, with contracts now being renegotiated year-round rather than every three years.
LTL Sector: Exhaustion and Technological Transformation
Webb described the LTL market as "exhausted" after the prolonged freight recession, noting it presents both opportunities and risks for shippers seeking short-term pricing advantages.
"This is the longest freight recession we've experienced, but it will eventually end," Webb said. "Strategic buyers will benefit long-term, while others may find themselves in trouble. Our industry lags in digital transformation compared to parcel carriers."
He predicted significant consolidation, with 90% of the LTL market currently controlled by just 20% of carriers, potentially shrinking to 15 dominant players within five years. Major technology investments will be critical for improving automation and customer experience while reducing backend costs.
Tucker concluded that achieving supply-demand balance remains the primary challenge, with potential regulatory changes possibly accelerating market correction. Effective enforcement at both federal and state levels could significantly impact pricing dynamics, rewarding shippers who cultivate strong carrier relationships.