As trade friction intensifies worldwide, conventional wisdom might suggest a bleak outlook for the air cargo market. Yet analysis from aviation consultancy Cirium reveals a counterintuitive trend: demand for cargo aircraft continues to rise despite escalating tariffs, particularly between the U.S. and China.
Defying Gravity: Cargo Planes Thrive Amid Trade Wars
Historical data from the 2018/2019 U.S.-China trade war provides compelling insights. While global air cargo demand growth plummeted from over 9% in previous years to just 3.5% in 2018, followed by a 3.9% contraction in 2019, cargo aircraft operations told a different story. Cirium's research shows the global fleet of wide-body freighters grew by 4% and narrow-body freighters by 5% in 2019, with their average daily utilization increasing 2% and 5% respectively.
"This paradox demonstrates how tariff policies can simultaneously depress international trade while stimulating domestic demand," the analysis notes. "Rather than hampering operations, trade barriers appear to have redirected logistics patterns in ways that sustained cargo aircraft utilization."
The E-Commerce Factor
Beneath the surface, surging domestic consumption in both the U.S. and China – particularly from e-commerce growth – created new demand for narrow-body freighters. Global capacity metrics (measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers) corroborate this trend, showing consistent month-over-month growth throughout 2019, culminating in a 2.1% annual increase.
The resilience suggests that while specific trade routes like U.S.-China may experience volatility, the air cargo market possesses structural buffers against localized disruptions. Regional demand shifts and supply chain adaptations appear capable of absorbing geopolitical shocks.
Future Prospects and Challenges
Looking ahead, long-term demand for cargo aircraft is projected to maintain its upward trajectory, though operators face mounting challenges. Potential risks include cargo shortages during economic downturns and financial pressures from fluctuating fuel costs and lease rates.
Industry experts advise cargo carriers to adopt agile operational strategies, closely monitor trade policy developments, and diversify their service networks to capitalize on emerging growth opportunities while mitigating sector-specific risks.