As a vital component of civil aviation, the air cargo industry has demonstrated robust growth potential in recent years. While the first half of the year is traditionally considered the off-season for air freight, an unexpected bull market in 2024 has injected new vitality into the sector. Data shows that in the first quarter of 2024, China's civil aviation industry achieved a record high in cargo and mail transportation volume, reaching 2.007 million tons—a 34.4% year-on-year increase. However, the industry continues to face numerous uncertainties.
Air cargo operations are significantly more complex than passenger transport, involving diverse cargo types with stringent transportation requirements. This complexity creates operational and coordination challenges. From pharmaceuticals and perishable goods to high-value items, each category demands specialized transportation solutions and team coordination. These challenges not only test operational capabilities but also generate divergent views within the industry about market prospects.
The sustained growth in market demand has been significantly driven by the rise of cross-border e-commerce. Major e-commerce platforms have become primary sources of air cargo, with data indicating that just two platforms—SHEIN and Temu—generate daily export air cargo volumes reaching 5,000 metric tons. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts have diverted some ocean freight to air transport, particularly as Red Sea shipping routes face disruptions, forcing many shippers to seek air solutions. These converging external factors have contributed to a notable surge in air cargo demand.
However, as demand increases, insufficient capacity has emerged as another major challenge for the air cargo industry. While aircraft shortages represent an urgent core issue, airlines must also navigate the complex task of capacity planning and management in a volatile market. Currently, there are approximately 650 active large cargo aircraft worldwide with an average age of 16 years, and many will face retirement in coming years. The capacity gap is projected to reach 60 aircraft by 2027, potentially exacerbating industry instability.
Facing these challenges and opportunities, the air cargo industry must develop proactive strategies. As the traditional peak season approaches in the second half of the year, industry observers maintain an optimistic outlook for the air freight market. While uncertainties persist, airlines and cargo enterprises must demonstrate greater flexibility in adjusting capacity and improving service efficiency. The ability to transport diverse cargo efficiently and promptly to destinations will prove decisive for the industry's future development. In an environment where market conditions constantly evolve, only those with foresight and adaptability will emerge as leaders in this competitive landscape.
