Container shipping rates continue to decline due to weak demand and supply-demand imbalances. In the short term, rates may decrease further; however, seasonal demand recovery in the second quarter could provide support for rates. At the same time, uncertainties in the global economic landscape and trade policies will continue to influence market trends.
The Logistics Manager's Index (LMI) showed strong performance in June, reaching 60.7, indicating a recovery trend in the industry. Inventory levels have risen due to increased tariffs, while transportation and warehousing capacities have declined. Despite optimistic short-term growth, long-term market demand remains uncertain, and future trade policies will significantly impact the entire sector.
The surge in demand resulting from the US-China trade agreement brings potential risks to the supply chain. While the decline in idle ship rates indicates a recovery in capacity, shipping companies may face significant challenges including reduced quotas, difficulties in booking, and rising costs, which have a considerable economic impact on end consumers.
The U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated a Section 232 investigation into truck imports, raising concerns about rising trade protectionism. This action could increase costs for the trucking industry, exacerbating weak demand and overcapacity. Companies need to diversify procurement, improve efficiency, and expand services to cope. The investigation may also trigger trade friction, hindering global economic recovery, and requiring vigilance against the negative impacts of tariffs. The potential for retaliatory measures and disruptions to supply chains necessitates careful monitoring of the situation.
China's port container throughput surged by 10% year-on-year in Q1 2024, with Shanghai port leading the way. The China-Europe Railway Express and China-Russia railway freight volume also experienced significant growth, reflecting a global trade recovery. Regional imbalances in port development and potential influencing factors warrant attention. This growth highlights the increasing importance of China's ports in facilitating international trade and the effectiveness of initiatives like the China-Europe Railway Express in connecting China with global markets.
Recent data shows that container freight rates from Shanghai to Europe and the Mediterranean rose by 27.2% and 23.5% within a week, with increases of 170% and 203% compared to the same period last year. The box shortage and demand recovery are the main driving factors, which may impact the global trade landscape in the future.
The Logistics Manager Index for June 2025 continues to rise, reaching 60.7, indicating a strong recovery in the logistics industry after recent fluctuations. Significant increases in inventory levels and costs have driven the growth of the index, while there is a shrinking trend in warehousing and transportation capacity. Uncertainty regarding future demand and trade policies remains a challenge.
The Global Trade Health Index reveals a significant drop in order volumes in the European market, impacted by the energy crisis and inflation. While the US market is less affected, retail orders are also decreasing, leading to substantial inventory pressure. The potential for recovery during the holiday season remains uncertain, requiring close monitoring of market dynamics.
The Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) reached 60.7 in June, an increase of 1.3% from May, marking the first time it has surpassed 60 since July 2022. This reflects strong signs of recovery in the logistics industry.
The Logistics Manager's Index (LMI) for June highlights a recovery in the logistics sector, reaching 60.7 after two consecutive months of growth. Rising inventory levels and costs are key driving factors. Additionally, warehousing capacity has entered contraction territory for the first time, indicating a landscape where challenges and opportunities coexist.
