The $6.6 billion less-than-truckload (LTL) shipping market is navigating significant challenges in the current economic climate. Satish Jindel, principal consultant at SJ Consulting and a leading industry analyst, predicts 2025 will be a year of heightened volatility for the sector.
Supply Management Becomes Critical
Jindel emphasizes that while carriers have limited influence over demand, controlling supply remains crucial for maintaining competitiveness in uncertain times. "Our supply doesn't just mean the number of trucks and drivers—it includes terminal management as well," he explains.
For leading LTL carriers like Estes Express, FedEx Freight, and Saia, Jindel offers specific advice: "They shouldn't rush to activate the 100+ former Yellow terminals they acquired. Keeping them in reserve would be wiser." In an increasingly saturated market where price wars threaten profitability, this strategic patience could prove vital.
Market Share and Pricing Shifts
Data from SJ Consulting reveals that the top 25 LTL carriers saw combined revenues decline 1.3% in 2024 to $48.2 billion. The LTL market structure differs markedly from truckload (TL) shipping—while the largest LTL player commands nearly 10% market share, Knight-Swift, the TL leader, holds just 1%.
Another seismic change comes from the National Motor Freight Classification (NMFC), which will transition from commodity-based to density-based pricing effective July 19, 2025. Though intended to modernize and simplify pricing, Jindel criticizes the timing: "Pushing dimensional pricing in this market environment is premature and ill-timed." He advocates delaying implementation until 2026 and covering all commodities simultaneously to avoid potential rate chaos.
Survival of the Efficient
The 21st century has already witnessed the demise of storied carriers like Central Freight Lines, New England Motor Freight, and Lakewood. In this challenging environment, operational efficiency separates thriving companies from those facing insolvency.
As Kevin Freeman, president and CEO of ODFL, noted in a recent analyst meeting: "Improving network efficiency with declining volumes is extremely difficult, but I'm pleased that despite a 5% drop in daily LTL shipments, our platform continues to show improved pickups and deliveries per hour." In a softening market, such productivity gains may determine which carriers survive the coming turbulence.