In today's globalized economy, air freight has evolved from a simple logistics method into a vital pillar of worldwide commerce. As globalization deepens, air cargo services not only support the flourishing international trade but also significantly enhance business efficiency by delivering goods to consumers with unprecedented speed. Against this backdrop, understanding the current state and future trajectory of the air cargo market becomes crucial.
In a recent exclusive interview with Logistics Management Group News Editor Jeff Berman, Brandon Fried, Executive Director of the Airforwarders Association, shared his insights on the industry's current challenges and emerging trends.
Current Market Dynamics: A Gradual Recovery
Fried's analysis reveals an air cargo market experiencing cautious optimism after pandemic-era turbulence. While international trade recovery has spurred renewed demand, the industry hasn't fully returned to pre-pandemic norms. "We're seeing positive signs of rebound," Fried noted, "but this isn't simply a return to 2019 conditions—it's a new landscape with fresh challenges."
The resurgence in global trade has created new opportunities for air freight providers, with airlines gradually restoring capacity after severe COVID-related disruptions. However, Fried emphasized that this recovery comes with heightened customer expectations: "Businesses now demand even greater efficiency and reliability from their air cargo partners."
Trade Tariffs Reshaping Supply Chains
The conversation highlighted how shifting trade policies are forcing companies to rethink logistics strategies. "Fluctuating tariffs directly impact cargo flows and transportation costs," Fried explained. "When import duties rise, manufacturers must reconsider production locations and distribution channels—decisions that ripple through the entire air cargo ecosystem."
For example, recent tariff increases have prompted some companies to relocate manufacturing to countries with more favorable trade terms. These strategic shifts require air freight providers to adapt routing networks and service offerings to maintain competitiveness.
FAA Staffing Shortages Raise Concerns
Fried expressed particular concern about workforce challenges at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). "The current shortage of air traffic controllers creates potential bottlenecks," he warned. "In an increasingly complex airspace environment, adequate staffing is essential for both safety and operational efficiency."
The industry leader called for intensified workforce development programs to address this critical issue, noting that personnel shortages could undermine recent market gains if left unresolved.
Technological Transformation Underway
Looking ahead, Fried identified automation and virtualization as key drivers of industry evolution. "From automated warehousing systems to drone delivery technology, innovation is reshaping how we move goods by air," he observed. These advancements promise to accelerate processing times while reducing labor costs and human error.
Fried predicted that technological maturation in coming years will bring profound changes: "Early adopters will gain significant competitive advantages in speed, accuracy, and customer satisfaction."
2025 Peak Season: A Litmus Test for Recovery
Despite current challenges, Fried remains bullish about the industry's medium-term prospects. "All indicators suggest strong performance during the 2025 peak shipping season," he projected. While global supply chain uncertainties persist, air freight's unique advantages in speed and reliability position it for growth.
"For forward-thinking companies, the next two years present a crucial window to optimize supply chains and capture emerging opportunities," Fried advised. "Adaptability will separate industry leaders from followers in this dynamic environment."
Conclusion: Navigating a Transformative Era
The air cargo sector stands at an inflection point, where traditional operational models intersect with technological disruption and geopolitical shifts. Fried's insights reveal an industry simultaneously confronting immediate pressures while preparing for long-term transformation.
For businesses and professionals in this space, success will require vigilance to policy changes, investment in innovation, and strategic agility. As air cargo continues to play its indispensable role in global commerce, those who best anticipate and adapt to these evolving dynamics will shape the industry's future.