In the global logistics market, the growing trend of ocean freight pre-positioning is dramatically altering air cargo dynamics across the Pacific. Asian shippers, anticipating potential U.S. tariff reductions, are increasingly turning to maritime transport—a strategic shift that has significantly depressed demand for air freight in the short term, leaving little room for volume or rate recovery.
Recent data from logistics analytics firm Rotate reveals that air cargo capacity from China and Hong Kong to the U.S. has dipped slightly over the past four weeks, currently stabilizing at approximately 36,000 metric tons weekly. This decline stems from three key factors: the ocean freight pre-positioning strategy, plummeting e-commerce demand, and stricter U.S. import controls on low-value Chinese goods —all reducing the necessity for air transport.
Market Recovery Remains Uncertain
With businesses increasingly opting for ocean shipping to avoid exorbitant air freight costs, the trans-Pacific air cargo sector faces murky recovery prospects in coming months. Industry analysts widely agree that current market conditions show little sign of immediate improvement, with air cargo volumes and rates likely to remain depressed until at least August, when the high-tariff suspension period concludes.
E-Commerce Impact and Emerging Challenges
The air cargo sector had benefited from e-commerce's explosive growth in recent years, particularly as consumer expectations for rapid delivery intensified. However, import restrictions have disproportionately affected small businesses and startups, eroding their international competitiveness and further weakening air freight's market foundation.
Despite these headwinds, forward-thinking logistics providers are adapting to evolving market demands. Some companies are pioneering innovative supply chain solutions designed to boost operational efficiency while meeting rising consumer service expectations. Though this transformation is gradual, it signals potential for eventual air cargo market recovery.
As global freight markets continue evolving, the strategic tension between ocean and air transport will persist. For businesses, striking the right balance between these two modes will emerge as a critical operational imperative in the years ahead.