Forward-Looking Analysis: Risks and Opportunities
The Mexican Chamber of Commerce in China (MEXCHAM) has released its comprehensive Mexico-China Economic and Trade Business Outlook Survey Report , providing valuable insights into bilateral trade dynamics. Conducted in the first half of 2026, this survey captures business perspectives on investment environments, cooperation potential, challenges, and future development trends between the two nations.
1. Business Operations: Dual-Market Strategy Prevails
The survey reveals that 70% of companies operate simultaneously in both China and Mexico, treating the two markets as an integrated economic space. Only 30% operate exclusively in China, with no companies operating solely in Mexico or other regions.
2. Regional Focus: Coastal China vs. Central-Northern Mexico
- China: 90% of business activities concentrate in southeastern coastal regions
- Mexico: 50% in central/Bajío regions and 40% in northeast areas
3. Company Size: SMEs Lead with Large Firms Present
The business landscape shows 40% of companies have 11-50 employees, while 30% are large enterprises with over 500 staff members.
4. Trade Roles: Trading Companies Dominate
Trading companies account for 40% of market participants, significantly outpacing manufacturers (20%), exporters (30%), and importers (20%).
Performance Review: 2025 Trade Exceeds Expectations
5. Trade Performance
While 40% of companies reported results meeting expectations, another 40% achieved above-expectation performance (30% significantly higher, 10% slightly higher).
6. Trade Volume
60% observed stable trade volumes, with 30% reporting growth (20% significant increase, 10% moderate increase).
7. Profitability
40% maintained stable profit margins, while another 40% experienced improvements (30% moderate increase, 10% significant increase).
8. Growth Drivers
Market demand emerged as the primary growth factor, cited by 90% of respondents, far exceeding policy support or technological innovation.
Strategic Outlook: 2026 Business Decisions
9. Expansion Plans
50% of companies plan to expand Mexico-China operations in 2026, while 30% will maintain current scales. No companies reported plans to reduce operations.
10. Strategic Motivations
60% cited long-term strategic positioning as their primary reason for expansion or maintaining operations.
11. Contraction Concerns
Policy uncertainty was identified by 40% of companies as the main reason for potential operational reductions.
Tariff Policy Challenges
12. New Tariff Awareness
50% of respondents demonstrated general awareness of new measures, while only 20% possessed detailed knowledge.
13. Business Impact
50% reported slight relevance to their operations, 30% moderate relevance, and 20% significant direct impact.
14. Cost Implications
40% anticipate moderate cost increases, with 20% expecting minor increases.
15. Key Concerns
80% expressed greatest concern about substantially increased tariffs on critical product categories.
16. Response Strategies
50% plan cost-sharing with partners, while another 50% have taken no action.
17. Primary Approach
40% intend to pass increased costs to customers.
USMCA Review Considerations
18. Awareness Levels
50% of businesses have heard about but lack detailed knowledge of the 2026 USMCA joint review.
19. Anticipated Effects
30% predict significant impact, while 40% expect moderate effects.
Conclusion: A Promising Future
The Mexico-China trade relationship demonstrates strong fundamentals and significant growth potential. Key recommendations include:
- Enhancing policy monitoring and risk assessment capabilities
- Optimizing supply chain configurations across regions
- Deepening market demand analysis for both economies
- Developing collaborative cost-sharing mechanisms