The global supply chain faces unprecedented strain as congestion, capacity shortages, and pandemic-related disruptions converge. With peak season arriving early, shippers confront skyrocketing rates and dwindling equipment availability across major trade lanes.
Ocean Freight: Capacity Crunch Drives Record Rate Hikes
Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB)
- Rates: New General Rate Increases (GRIs) expected mid-May; June hikes already announced.
- Capacity: Bookings backlogged through mid-June; recommend securing space 3+ weeks in advance.
- Equipment: Severe container shortages in North China, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan.
Far East-West Europe (FEWB)
- Rates: May GRIs implemented; additional increases expected in June.
- Capacity: Blank sailings and cargo rollovers persist; book 5+ weeks ahead for priority access.
European equipment shortages worsen as port congestion delays empty container repositioning. Shippers should consider alternative routing and allow extended lead times for inland depot pickups.
Indian Subcontinent (ISC)
- Capacity: Demand outpaces available vessels; book 15-20 days before Cargo Ready Date (CRD).
- Equipment: India remains critical hotspot; local container production unlikely to alleviate shortages.
Pandemic Watch: Emerging Market Disruptions
- Bangladesh: Lockdown extended to May 16; infection rates declining.
- Sri Lanka: 7-day average cases rise to 2,000 amid Indian variant spread.
- India: Record 391,000 daily cases; nationwide lockdown under consideration.
U.S. Trade Lanes: Port Congestion Worsens
- Rates: Two carriers announced West Coast GRIs effective May 15; June reefer hikes anticipated.
- Capacity: Recommend booking 14-21 days before CRD for port/rail shipments.
- Equipment: Chassis shortages plague major hubs; truckers face extended wait times.
Severe vessel congestion at U.S. coasts delays cutoff dates and earliest return dates. East Coast-North Europe port bottlenecks continue eroding schedule reliability, forcing carriers to omit weekly sailings.
Air Cargo: Demand Surge Meets Capacity Collapse
Asian exports surge 40% year-over-year, with China's post-holiday demand spiking rates. The crisis deepened when Taiwan's CDC grounded 20% of China Airlines' fleet after pilot infections, eliminating key U.S. East Coast and Southeast Asia capacity.
Regional Highlights
- Europe-Americas/Asia: West Coast space remains critically tight; no meaningful capacity additions.
- India/Bangladesh: Aid shipments compete for limited humanitarian lift capacity.
- U.S. Ground Handling: LAX/ORD face 3-6 day backlogs; offsite facilities activated.
Ancillary Challenges
- Trucking: West Coast drayage scarce as perishables season begins; cherry exports face premium rates.
- Vaccine Logistics: Japan accelerates elderly vaccinations; Vietnam cases rise to 333 since April 27.
- Trade Policy: USTR hearings may clarify 301 tariff exclusions and EU/UK negotiations.
Macroeconomic Indicators
- U.S. March trade deficit hits record $74.4 billion
- China exports grow 32.3% year-over-year
- U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index at 60.7, signaling expansion
- Suez Canal reduces Ever Given claim to $600 million