Executive Summary
Trucking serves as the lifeblood of modern economies, playing an indispensable role in global supply chains. Despite recent declines in freight volumes across multiple transportation modes, trucking maintains its dominant position through significant advantages in both freight volume and revenue. This report analyzes the trucking industry's current status, future trends, and key influencing factors based on the American Trucking Associations' (ATA) annual forecast report "Freight Transportation Forecast: 2024 to 2035" and S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
1. Introduction: The Vital Role and Challenges of Trucking
In today's globalized economy, the rapid and efficient movement of goods is paramount. Trucking provides flexible, accessible transportation that connects production centers with consumers, linking urban and rural areas while supporting modern economic activity. Beyond being a conduit for commerce, trucking serves as an economic catalyst influencing employment, consumption, and investment.
However, global supply chains face mounting challenges including geopolitical risks, trade disputes, natural disasters, and pandemic disruptions. These factors have depressed freight volumes worldwide, creating pressure for the trucking sector. Additional challenges stem from fuel price volatility, driver shortages, tightening regulations, and accelerating technological change.
Despite these obstacles, the trucking industry demonstrates remarkable resilience and adaptability. Through continuous innovation and optimization, trucking companies are enhancing operational efficiency, reducing costs, and improving service quality to meet evolving market demands.
2. Trucking: The Dominant Force in Freight Markets
ATA projections indicate U.S. truck freight volumes will grow 1.6% in 2025, reaching a peak of nearly 1.4 billion tons by 2035. These forecasts reflect comprehensive analysis of economic trends, freight demand patterns, and trucking's competitive advantages.
Trucking has long handled over 70% of U.S. freight, with its supply chain centrality remaining unchallenged. The industry's strengths include unparalleled flexibility and accessibility—delivering goods directly to destinations without intermediate transfers. Additional advantages like shorter transit times and lower cargo damage rates make trucking the preferred choice for most shippers.
Key ATA findings include:
- Volume Growth: Total truck freight is projected to increase from approximately 11.27 billion tons in 2024 to 13.99 billion tons by 2034, capturing 76.8% of freight market share by 2035.
- Revenue Expansion: Industry revenues are forecast to grow from $906 billion in 2024 to $1.46 trillion by the projection period's end.
- Modal Comparisons: Rail's market share will decline from 10.6% in 2024 to 9.9% by 2035 amid decreasing coal shipments. Rail intermodal volumes are expected to grow 2.9% before 2030 and 2.8% thereafter. Air cargo, domestic water transport, and pipelines show positive growth trajectories through 2035.
ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello notes: "Trucking maintains overwhelming dominance in both freight volume (72.7%) and revenue (76.9%) during 2024. We anticipate stable market share throughout the coming decade as America continues relying on trucks to move the vast majority of goods."
3. Policy Implications and Strategic Planning
ATA President and CEO Chris Spear emphasizes the report's value for industry planning and policymaking: "Understanding supply chain trends proves essential for Washington policymakers, state legislators, and all decision-makers influencing trucking and our economy."
Government actions could support industry development through:
- Infrastructure Investment: Enhancing roads, bridges, and ports to improve efficiency and reduce costs
- Regulatory Optimization: Developing frameworks that ensure safety while accommodating innovation
- Technology Support: Accelerating adoption of autonomous trucks, electric vehicles, and intelligent transport systems
- Workforce Solutions: Addressing driver shortages through improved compensation and working conditions
4. Trucking's Central Role in Modern Supply Chains
Even within increasingly fragmented supply chains incorporating multiple transport modes, regulations, and emerging technologies—from digital brokerage to last-mile delivery and AI—most supply chains still begin and end with trucks. This fundamental reality is underscored by ATA's comprehensive data.
Trucking provides critical linkages throughout supply chains, moving raw materials, intermediate goods, and finished products with unmatched flexibility. The e-commerce boom has particularly elevated last-mile delivery importance, where trucks deliver goods from distribution centers directly to consumers. Meeting growing demands for rapid, customized delivery services requires continuous industry innovation.
5. Key Factors Shaping the Trucking Industry
Several critical elements will influence trucking's future trajectory:
- Macroeconomic Conditions: Economic growth, consumer spending, and business investment directly drive freight demand
- Fuel Prices: As a major operational cost, fuel price fluctuations significantly impact profitability
- Labor Markets: Driver shortages stemming from demographic shifts, training requirements, and compensation issues require urgent solutions
- Regulations: Hours-of-service rules, safety standards, and emissions requirements affect operations and costs
- Technology: Autonomous vehicles, electric trucks, and intelligent systems promise efficiency gains but face adoption challenges
- Competition: Intense competition exists among large national carriers, regional operators, and alternative transport modes
- Supply Chain Evolution: Digitalization, same-day delivery expectations, and smart logistics are transforming industry requirements
6. Future Outlook for the Trucking Industry
Trucking will continue playing a pivotal economic role as population growth and economic expansion sustain freight demand. The industry must navigate challenges including fuel volatility, labor shortages, regulatory complexity, and technological disruption through:
- Sustainability Initiatives: Transitioning toward electric, hybrid, and natural gas vehicles
- Digital Transformation: Implementing electronic documentation, real-time tracking, and automated systems
- Collaborative Models: Strengthening partnerships across supply chains for resource sharing and efficiency gains
7. Conclusions and Recommendations
As the foundation of global supply chains, trucking remains vital to economic prosperity. Despite significant challenges, the industry demonstrates remarkable adaptability through continuous improvement. Stakeholders should consider these strategic priorities:
- Carriers: Enhance efficiency, adopt technologies, improve driver conditions, and strengthen partnerships
- Governments: Invest in infrastructure, streamline regulations, support innovation, and address workforce issues
- Associations: Promote best practices and industry-wide competitiveness
The trucking industry's future presents both opportunities and challenges. Continued innovation and adaptation will prove essential for maintaining competitiveness and supporting economic growth.