DAT Report Reveals Three Key Trends as Fuel Surcharges Hit Multi-Year Highs, Carriers Face Challenges
BEAVERTON, Oregon – As retailers prepare for the back-to-school season, trucking companies are closely monitoring freight market dynamics. The latest Truckload Volume Index (TVI) report from DAT Freight & Analytics shows the US truck freight market maintained relative stability in July, but subtle changes beneath the surface may indicate future directional shifts.
Three Key July Freight Market Trends
DAT's standardized TVI measures monthly changes in freight volumes picked up by truckload carriers, with a baseline of 100 representing January 2015 volumes. The index tracks dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed shipments as key market health indicators.
1. Mixed TVI Performance: Refrigerated Leads Growth
- Dry Van TVI: At 249, down 0.4% monthly but up 3% year-over-year, suggesting modest consumer goods demand softening amid positive long-term trends.
- Refrigerated TVI: Reached 202, growing 2% monthly and 11% annually, driven by summer agricultural shipments and higher time-sensitive rates.
- Flatbed TVI: Declined 3% to 314 but maintained 8% annual growth, potentially reflecting construction and manufacturing sector slowdowns.
2. Spot Rates Show Divergence: Fuel Surcharges Become Critical Factor
- National average spot rates: Dry van ($2.05/mile, +$0.03), refrigerated ($2.42/mile, +$0.05), flatbed ($2.55/mile, -$0.02).
- Linehaul rates (excluding fuel) remained stable, while fuel surcharges surged to 2025 highs: dry van ($0.42), refrigerated ($0.46), flatbed ($0.51) per mile.
3. Contract Rates Rise With Fuel Costs: Carriers Seek Cost Recovery
- Contract rates increased across segments: dry van ($2.44/mile, +$0.04), refrigerated ($2.78/mile, +$0.04), flatbed ($3.08/mile, +$0.03).
Market Analysis: Seasonal Support vs. Underlying Weakness
While July's stability benefited from seasonal agricultural shipments and pre-Independence Day retail demand, DAT observed weakening momentum through the month's second half. This suggests fundamental market softness persists despite temporary support.
Expert Perspective: Stagnant Market Conditions
DAT Chief Analyst Ken Adamo noted: "The truck freight market remains weak, with no meaningful shifts in demand or capacity beyond seasonal fluctuations and tariff-related shipper strategies. While some carriers with cost advantages secure better contracts, most see stagnant volumes and rates unlikely to change without significant catalysts."
Segment-Specific Challenges
- Dry Van: Consumer demand moderation requires operational efficiency improvements to offset fuel cost pressures.
- Refrigerated: Strong seasonal performance comes with higher equipment maintenance and fuel consumption costs.
- Flatbed: Industrial sector softness and long-haul fuel sensitivity create particular challenges.
Future Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty
Multiple factors cloud the market outlook:
- Macroeconomic pressures from inflation and slowing growth
- Geopolitical trade disruptions
- Evolving consumer preferences
- Persistent capacity oversupply
- Fuel price volatility
- Regulatory changes affecting operations
Strategic Recommendations for Carriers
- Diversify customer portfolios
- Optimize routing and reduce empty miles
- Adopt efficiency-enhancing technologies
- Implement dynamic pricing strategies
- Monitor market indicators closely
Conclusion: Cautious Adaptation Required
The US truck freight market maintains fragile equilibrium, with seasonal support temporarily offsetting structural softness. Carriers must balance operational flexibility with cost discipline to navigate uncertain conditions ahead.