The latest DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI) reveals a trucking market facing seasonal headwinds and economic uncertainty, with analysts pointing to March as a potential inflection point for the industry.
November DAT Truckload Volume Index: A Seasonal Slowdown
The DAT Freight & Analytics report shows spot market truckload volumes and rates declined in November, influenced by seasonal patterns and the timing of Thanksgiving. The standardized index, benchmarked to January 2015 levels (100), tracks dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed freight movements.
Equipment-Specific Performance
- Dry Van TVI: 246 (up 18% from October, down 1% year-over-year)
- Refrigerated TVI: 242 (down 23% monthly, up 7% annually)
- Flatbed TVI: 242 (down 23% monthly, down 5% annually)
Rate Dynamics Show Market Fragmentation
Spot Market Rates
- Dry van: $2.02/mile (flat from October)
- Refrigerated: $2.45/mile (up $0.06)
- Flatbed: $2.37/mile (down $0.05)
Linehaul Rates (fuel surcharges excluded)
- Dry van: $1.64/mile (up $0.01 monthly, $0.05 annually)
- Refrigerated: $2.04/mile (up $0.07 monthly, $0.05 annually)
- Flatbed: $1.93/mile (down $0.03 monthly, up $0.05 annually)
Contract Rates
- Dry van: $2.40/mile (down $0.01 monthly, $0.11 annually)
- Refrigerated: $2.74/mile (flat monthly, down $0.18 annually)
- Flatbed: $3.03/mile (down $0.01 monthly, $0.11 annually)
Market Indicators Suggest Tightening Conditions
The DAT iQ New Rate Differential (NRD) for dry van freight remained positive for the third consecutive month - the first such streak since spring 2022. This metric, comparing inbound and outbound contract rates, signals market tightening when positive.
Analyst Perspective: Seasonal Patterns Dominant
DAT Chief Analyst Ken Adamo noted the compressed November market activity due to Thanksgiving's late date (November 28). "Refrigerated freight was the exception, with grocers having more time to move perishables," Adamo explained.
Adamo characterized November's carrier activity as typical for the season: "We're seeing the usual year-end carrier exits as operators avoid renewing insurance policies or facing tax obligations. November typically shows low acquisition and high attrition."
Critical Months Ahead
Adamo identified March as the pivotal month for market direction: "After five months in this freight cycle, March will determine the market's true trajectory." He cautioned about potential disruptions from East Coast/Gulf Coast port strikes in January and weather impacts on agricultural shipments.
Structural Market Challenges
The trucking sector faces multiple pressure points:
- Macroeconomic headwinds (GDP growth, inflation, interest rates)
- Supply chain constraints (port congestion, driver shortages)
- Regulatory pressures (hours-of-service, emissions standards)
- Seasonal demand fluctuations
Strategic Responses for Carriers
Industry participants are adapting through:
- Operational efficiency improvements (route optimization, fuel management)
- Service diversification (LTL, warehousing, last-mile)
- Technology adoption (telematics, autonomous vehicle monitoring)
- Risk mitigation strategies (insurance coverage, customer diversification)
While November's metrics reflect seasonal softening, the industry remains cautiously optimistic about potential recovery signs emerging in spring 2023. Market participants continue monitoring macroeconomic indicators and supply chain developments for clearer directional signals.