As supply chain gears grind unevenly, how can businesses navigate the fog and recalibrate their course? At the recent CSCMP EDGE conference, leaders from trucking, ground parcel, and less-than-truckload (LTL) sectors gathered to dissect current market challenges and provide forward-looking insights for shippers preparing for 2026.
The session titled "State of Ground Transportation," moderated by Mike Levans of Peerless Media LLC, featured presentations from Jeff Tucker (CEO of Tucker Company Worldwide), Robert Persuit (Senior Director of Business Development at ShipMatrix), and Al Webb (VP of Sales at PITT OHIO). Here are the key takeaways:
I. Trucking Market: Persistent Winter with Regulatory Shadows
Jeff Tucker delivered a blunt assessment: trucking companies, freight brokers, and forwarders remain mired in a "freight recession." His data painted a stark picture:
- Overcapacity Meets Weak Demand: Pre-pandemic FMCSA data showed 245,000 active carriers and 2.6 million drivers in May 2019. By May 2025, these numbers ballooned to 325,000 carriers (+30%) and 3.2 million drivers (+22%), while FRED index data revealed stagnant freight volumes at pre-pandemic levels.
- False Dawns: "Many expected recovery signs by late last year," Tucker noted. "But pharmaceutical stockpiling ahead of tariffs and delayed energy projects due to material cost volatility have kept pressure on rates."
Regulatory uncertainties compound these challenges. Tucker highlighted looming threats:
- Proposed H1B visa fee hikes to $100,000
- Potential CDL disqualifications for visa holders
- English proficiency requirements that may eliminate 200,000-700,000 drivers from the current 3.2 million workforce
II. Ground Parcel Market: Chaos and Realignment
Robert Persuit described the ground parcel sector as "insane" since January, with seismic shifts including:
- UPS-USPS last-mile partnership dissolution
- UPS reducing Amazon volume by 300 million parcels annually by mid-2026
- FedEx's "DRIVE" program targeting $4B+ cost cuts
- USPS policy reversals and privatization discussions
- Amazon's stalled third-party logistics ambitions
"The Big Three's market share (UPS/FedEx/USPS) dropped from 86% in 2019 to 64% in 2024. Amazon now leads daily parcel volume, while regional carriers like LSO and OnTrac gain ground," Persuit observed.
III. LTL Market: Exhaustion and Digital Imperatives
Al Webb characterized LTL as "weary," noting: "This prolonged freight recession will eventually end. Strategic shippers will reap benefits, while others risk being caught flat-footed." He emphasized digital transformation:
- Only 20% of carriers control 90% of the LTL market
- Consolidation may reduce major players to just 15 within five years
- Technology investments critical for automating back-office operations and improving customer experience
IV. Pathways Forward: Balance and Clarity
Tucker stressed that recovery hinges on achieving supply-demand equilibrium and regulatory clarity. "If proposed regulations are enforced at both federal and state levels, pricing impacts could be significant," he cautioned, adding that service-focused carriers are gaining preference among relationship-minded shippers.
V. Shipper Strategies: Agility in Uncertainty
Key recommendations for navigating this landscape:
- Monitor regulatory developments closely
- Optimize networks with cost-effective regional carriers
- Accelerate digital transformation
- Cultivate strategic carrier partnerships
- Maintain flexible pricing strategies
In this volatile environment, shippers must combine vigilance with adaptability to build resilient supply chains poised for sustainable growth.