Washington, D.C. – The latest Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consulting firm Hackett Associates reveals a continued surge in imports at U.S. ports, analyzing the key drivers behind this trend. While the potential labor crisis at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports has been averted, concerns about future tariff increases continue to fuel import growth, a pattern expected to persist through 2025.
Port Coverage and Methodology
The Port Tracker report monitors major U.S. ports including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma, Seattle, Houston, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Miami, Jacksonville, and Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. By tracking container volumes entering the U.S., the report provides retailers with a benchmark for sales expectations. Importantly, the report clarifies that import volumes don't directly correlate with retail sales or employment figures, as it counts containers rather than the value of their contents.
Labor Agreement Reached, Enhancing Supply Chain Stability
The report's release follows the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reaching a tentative agreement on a new six-year master contract. After a brief October strike led to a temporary extension set to expire January 15, this week's agreement prevented potential disruptions to global and domestic supply chains. Dockworkers will continue operations while the contract undergoes ratification.
Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, stated: "The new contract provides certainty and avoids disruption. We hope to see it ratified soon." He added: "With this last-minute agreement, retailers had already imported spring merchandise to ensure sufficient inventory, contributing to increased volumes. Another factor is President-elect Trump's planned tariff hikes, as retailers aim to avoid passing higher costs to consumers. The long-term import impact remains uncertain."
Import Data Analysis: November Growth and Future Projections
November data (the most recent available) shows U.S. imports at 2.17 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units), excluding final figures for New York/New Jersey. This represents a 3.2% monthly decrease but 14.7% annual growth.
The Port Tracker forecasts for coming months:
| Month | Projected TEUs | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| December | 2.24 million | -19.2% |
| January | 2.16 million | +2.5% |
| February | 1.87 million | -4.5% |
| March | 2.13 million | +10.6% |
| April | 2.18 million | +8% |
| May | 2.20 million | +5.9% |
Full-year 2024 projections estimate 25.6 million TEUs, a 15.2% increase from 2023. Earlier November forecasts (pre-contract extension and election) anticipated 24.9 million TEUs for 2024.
Expert Insight: Tariff Concerns and Advance Shipments
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, noted in the report that while strikes were avoided, their potential effects linger. "Importers front-loaded shipments against possible delays, boosting December and early January volumes," Hackett observed. "Meanwhile, carrier notifications show several canceled sailings, indicating reduced imports in February and early March due to Chinese New Year factory closures."
Key Takeaways
- U.S. port imports continue surging, with growth expected through 2025
- Labor agreement prevents potential supply chain disruptions
- Tariff increase concerns significantly drive import growth
- Retailers stockpile inventory preemptively against tariffs and disruptions
- November imports rose 14.7% annually, with fluctuating projections ahead
- Chinese New Year closures will impact February/early March volumes
Organizational Background
The National Retail Federation (NRF) is the world's largest retail trade association, representing department stores, specialty retailers, discount chains, e-commerce platforms, and food service providers across the U.S. and globally. Retail employs over 52 million Americans and contributes $5.3 trillion annually to the economy.
Hackett Associates provides maritime consulting services worldwide, offering strategic advice, market analysis, and operational improvements to help clients navigate complex supply chain challenges.
Comprehensive Analysis: Multifaceted Drivers of Import Growth
The import surge reflects interconnected factors beyond tariffs and labor agreements:
1. Global Economic Conditions
Post-pandemic economic recovery fuels international trade, with the U.S. consumer market driving demand. However, geopolitical risks, inflation, and energy price volatility pose potential threats to sustained growth.
2. Evolving Consumer Demand
Technological advancements and lifestyle changes boost demand for electronics, home goods, and health foods—predominantly imported categories. Seasonal demand spikes (e.g., holiday shopping) further influence import patterns.
3. Supply Chain Resilience
Recent disruptions prompted diversification strategies (multi-country sourcing) and inventory increases, both contributing to higher imports. The new labor agreement enhances operational stability.
4. Trade Policy Uncertainty
Potential tariff hikes under the incoming administration create urgency for importers to secure goods at current rates, avoiding future cost increases that would ultimately affect consumers.
5. Regional Port Performance
Major gateways show varied trends:
- Los Angeles/Long Beach: Congestion challenges divert some traffic
- New York/New Jersey: Strong growth handling transatlantic/Asian cargo
- Houston: Emerging container hub complementing energy exports
- Savannah: Rapid expansion serving southeastern markets
Industry Outlook
Whether import growth proves sustainable depends on multiple variables: global economic health, consumer spending patterns, domestic production capacity, and trade policy developments. While current indicators suggest continued strength through 2025, businesses must remain agile to navigate potential shifts in the trade landscape.