Business leaders and supply chain professionals grappling with volatile shipping markets now have access to a powerful forecasting tool. The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, launched in October 2021, provides predictive analytics for truckload (TL), less-than-truckload (LTL), and parcel shipping sectors.
Data-Driven Market Intelligence
The index combines AFS Logistics' extensive freight data across multiple transportation modes with advanced machine learning algorithms. This methodology transforms raw transactional data—including rate information, shipment volumes, and carrier pricing—into actionable market intelligence.
Unlike traditional reports that primarily analyze historical trends, the index incorporates macroeconomic factors and carrier announcements, including General Rate Increase (GRI) notices, to generate forward-looking quarterly projections.
Sector-Specific Findings
LTL Market: Post-Yellow Shakeup
Third-quarter LTL rates increased 2.2% year-over-year, with two-thirds of the increase attributed to rising linehaul costs following Yellow Corporation's bankruptcy. The carrier's exit forced shippers to alternative providers with higher pricing structures.
Fuel surcharges surged nearly 20% quarter-over-quarter amid rising oil prices. The index projects Q4 LTL rates will remain 59.3% above January 2018 baselines, though representing a 3.2% year-over-year decline.
Parcel Shipping: Discounts vs. Demand Surcharges
Ground parcel rates experienced their first annual decrease since 2019 in Q3, with average discounts increasing by one percentage point—the largest quarterly jump this year. However, anticipated peak season demand surcharges from major carriers are expected to drive a 1.5% Q4 increase.
Express parcel rates declined 2.3% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to a 4% reduction in average billable weight that offset a 14.6% fuel surcharge increase. The index forecasts a 1.7% sequential increase for Q4.
Truckload Sector: Modest Recovery
The per-mile rate index edged up from 4.3% to 4.4% above baseline in Q3. Short-haul volume growth helped mitigate costs, likely reflecting shippers' network optimization efforts. Q4 projections anticipate minimal improvement at 4.6% above baseline, consistent with muted peak season expectations.
Strategic Value for Shippers
The index provides several key benefits for logistics professionals:
- Comprehensive data coverage across major freight modes
- Advanced predictive modeling capabilities
- Actionable insights for contract negotiations
- Early warning signals for market disruptions
- Benchmarking against historical trends
As noted by AFS CEO Tom Nightingale, recent market turbulence—including UPS labor negotiations and Yellow's collapse—has heightened the need for reliable forecasting tools. The index helps shippers navigate these challenges while maintaining pricing leverage in a soft demand environment.