In the volatile and unpredictable freight market, businesses often struggle to maintain course. The newly launched TD Cowen-AFS Freight Index , a quarterly report jointly published by New York investment firm TD Cowen Inc. and Louisiana-based 3PL company AFS Logistics LLC, aims to provide the compass needed to navigate these challenging waters.
Why This Index Matters
This comprehensive analytical tool offers more than just market data aggregation. It delivers:
- Complete market overview: Covering truckload (TL), parcel (express and ground), and less-than-truckload (LTL) sectors
- Advanced data analytics: Leveraging AFS Logistics' extensive freight data combined with machine learning to build predictive models
- Forward-looking projections: Incorporating macroeconomic and microeconomic factors, including recent general rate increases (GRIs) from major carriers
- Actionable strategies: Providing concrete recommendations for operational optimization and profitability enhancement
Core Advantages
The index distinguishes itself through several key features:
- Robust data foundation: Drawing from AFS Logistics' extensive freight database across multiple transport modes and geographies
- Cutting-edge analytics: Employing machine learning and statistical modeling for deep data insights
- Expert analysis: Backed by teams of data scientists, economists, and industry specialists
- Custom reporting: Offering tailored analysis beyond standard quarterly reports
- Continuous updates: Regular refinements to reflect evolving market conditions
Key Sector Insights
Truckload (TL): Cautious Optimism
The index reveals mixed signals in the truckload sector:
Key Findings:
- Spot market rates show modest increases
- Contract rates lag behind spot market improvements
- Linehaul costs per shipment declined for eighth consecutive quarter
- Per-mile rate index expected to remain stable in Q1 2025
While opportunities exist in spot market fluctuations, challenges persist in contract negotiations and persistent overcapacity.
Parcel Shipping: Effective Pricing Adjustments
The parcel sector demonstrates the effectiveness of strategic pricing:
Key Findings:
- New demand surcharges boosted ground parcel averages
- Fuel surcharge adjustments offset diesel price declines
- Express parcel rates declined year-over-year
- Ground parcel rates increased to 24.4% index value
Despite aggressive discounting in previous periods, carriers have successfully implemented pricing strategies to maintain profitability.
Less-Than-Truckload (LTL): Pricing Discipline Eroding
The LTL market shows signs of shifting dynamics:
Key Findings:
- Pricing remained elevated post-Yellow Freight bankruptcy
- Recent data suggests weakening carrier pricing discipline
- Fuel surcharges declined more sharply than diesel prices
- Growth rates continue decelerating despite positive annual trends
While the market maintains relatively strong pricing, cracks are appearing in the previously disciplined environment.
Strategic Value
The TD Cowen-AFS Freight Index serves as more than an informational resource—it provides the analytical foundation for critical business decisions. By leveraging its insights, industry participants can better anticipate market shifts, optimize operations, and position themselves for success in challenging market conditions.