In the intricate web of global commerce, goods flow like lifeblood through the veins of logistics. When these vital channels become congested, the health of the global economy faces significant threats. Flexport Research serves as a "trade physician," utilizing proprietary data and expert analysis to diagnose the condition of global supply chains and forecast emerging trade patterns.
Overview of Flexport Research
Established by global logistics technology firm Flexport, the research division provides in-depth freight market and economic analysis. By leveraging proprietary and third-party data, the team examines supply chain disruptions over the past five years—particularly those stemming from Section 301 tariffs and the COVID-19 pandemic—to help clients, partners, and industry stakeholders understand these impacts and inform future decision-making.
Research findings encompass multiple dimensions including ocean freight transit times, post-pandemic consumption pattern shifts, and trade activity forecasting.
Key Research Metrics
Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI)
The OTI measures the duration from when goods are ready to depart an exporter's facility until their retrieval at the destination port. Ocean freight typically follows established trade lanes, with the two largest being Asia-North America and Asia-Europe routes. The OTI captures transit efficiency on these critical corridors, enabling businesses to optimize shipping schedules and reduce costs.
Calculation methodology involves analyzing extensive freight data including origin/destination ports, estimated versus actual arrival times. Statistical processing yields average transit durations across routes and time periods, revealing overall supply chain efficiency. OTI fluctuations reflect multiple influencing factors including port congestion, weather events, and geopolitical developments.
Post-COVID Indicator
This metric tracks the balance of U.S. consumer spending between goods and services, with further breakdowns between durable/non-durable categories and nominal versus inflation-adjusted values. These analyses reveal pandemic-induced behavioral changes and economic recovery progress, helping businesses adapt production and sales strategies to evolving demand patterns.
The indicator synthesizes data from government statistics, market research firms, and financial institutions, incorporating inflation adjustments to assess real spending changes across product categories.
Trade Activity Forecast
Combining traditional economic techniques with Flexport's proprietary data, these projections estimate future U.S. merchandise imports across six industrial categories. Both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted versions are provided, assisting businesses in anticipating market demand, planning inventory levels, and streamlining supply chain operations.
Forecast models incorporate macroeconomic indicators, consumer confidence metrics, inventory cycles, and seasonal factors, enhanced by Flexport's real-time shipping data for improved accuracy. Results are presented as time-series projections showing anticipated trade activity trends.
Data Sources and Analytical Methods
Flexport Research utilizes:
- Proprietary Data: Comprehensive shipping records including transit times, costs, and routing information from Flexport's global logistics platform.
- Third-Party Data: Supplementary information from government agencies, industry associations, and research organizations to enhance analysis breadth and reliability.
Analytical approaches include:
- Statistical analysis to identify patterns and trends
- Econometric modeling for economic and trade projections
- Machine learning algorithms for predictive analytics
Practical Applications
Research outputs support:
- Corporate Strategy: Informing production, sales, and inventory decisions based on market trends
- Supply Chain Optimization: Reducing logistics costs and improving delivery efficiency
- Investment Decisions: Providing market intelligence for capital allocation
- Policy Development: Offering evidence-based insights for trade policy formulation
Conclusion
Through its unique data assets and analytical expertise, Flexport Research delivers valuable insights for global trade participants. In an era of increasing economic complexity and uncertainty, these perspectives offer critical guidance for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike. Continued research innovation positions the organization to make ongoing contributions to the resilience and efficiency of international commerce.