As Black Friday approaches, many sellers wonder whether last year's breakout products can repeat their success. Data suggests that not all bestsellers maintain their popularity. This article examines the performance of last year's Black Friday "dark horse" products and explores how sellers can achieve sustainable growth in today's competitive e-commerce landscape.
The Decline of Dark Horses: Growth Challenges in Monopolized Markets
During last year's Black Friday, LCD doodle boards saw sales skyrocket, reaching over 32,000 units in December. However, their monthly sales have significantly declined this year, with even Prime Day in July failing to revive demand. Analysis reveals that this product category exhibits strong market concentration, with the top 20 products capturing nearly 70% of total sales. This creates barriers for new entrants and non-top products to gain meaningful market share once promotional periods end.
In contrast, products like indoor decorative light strings continue to perform well due to sustained seasonal demand from holidays like Halloween and Christmas, demonstrating greater potential for ongoing success.
The Zero-Sum Game: Challenges in a Shrinking Market
Some sellers employ tactics like merging product variations to temporarily boost rankings and capture Black Friday traffic. However, this approach essentially creates a zero-sum game. When overall market capacity remains stagnant or declines, such "sales spikes" merely redistribute existing market share rather than creating new growth.
Market data shows that among 16,000+ subcategories on Amazon US, only 40% showed year-over-year growth in August and September. The remaining 60% experienced varying degrees of contraction, highlighting the need for sellers to identify new growth opportunities in this challenging environment.
The Long-Tail Strategy: Finding Opportunities in Niche Markets
Rather than competing in oversaturated mainstream categories, sellers might find better opportunities in growing niche markets. Even within seemingly competitive categories, untapped potential often exists. For example, in the kitchen and dining category, while only 3.4% of products reaching the Top 100 Best Sellers Rank (BSR) were new listings within three months, deeper analysis reveals promising newcomers ranking between 10,000-20,000 BSR.
One such example is an air fryer food mat (paper-based) from an FBA seller. Despite being a relatively new listing, it quickly accumulated reviews and achieved monthly sales in the thousands.
Case Study: The Market Potential of Air Fryer Liners
Search trends for "air fryer liners" have shown consistent growth since early 2022, with the keyword maintaining an Amazon search ranking between 1,000-2,000, indicating strong consumer demand. Top products in this category are predominantly priced under $20 with FBA shipping costs of $3-$6, offering reasonable profit margins.
Most listings are relatively new with limited reviews, suggesting opportunities for new entrants. However, the market shows signs of product homogeneity, with most competitors offering similar features and A+ content. Notably, silicone versions command higher prices and present opportunities for differentiation through design improvements, functional enhancements, and better marketing.
Data-Driven Differentiation: Finding Competitive Advantages
Sellers can leverage customer review analysis to identify unmet needs, such as heat resistance, odor prevention, and durability. These insights can guide product improvements - for example, developing more durable and eco-friendly silicone alternatives to address paper liners' shortcomings, or adding features like non-slip designs and optimized sizing.
Keyword analysis can also reveal additional opportunities. Beyond "air fryer liners," related terms like "air fryer accessories" and "air fryer parchment paper" may offer alternative traffic sources and less competitive niches.
Conclusion: Strategic Execution for Black Friday Success
Black Friday success doesn't require chasing last year's trends. Through careful market analysis, identification of niche opportunities, and strategic execution, sellers can thrive in today's competitive e-commerce environment. Rather than focusing solely on creating "bestsellers," prioritizing product differentiation, customer needs analysis, and targeted marketing can lead to more sustainable growth. In a market where many categories are contracting, data-driven decision-making and identification of growth segments will be key differentiators for Black Friday success.