As global trade entered May 2025, seasoned shipping professionals detected unsettling signals. The sustained growth momentum abruptly halted, with U.S. container imports experiencing a sudden decline that suggests fundamental changes in global trade patterns. This analysis examines the latest global shipping report from Descartes Systems Group, revealing the complex realities behind the numbers and exploring potential long-term impacts on global supply chains.
Key Findings: A Dramatic 9.7% Monthly Decline
According to Descartes Systems Group's June 2025 Global Shipping Report, U.S. container imports totaled 2,177,453 TEUs in May—a 9.7% decrease from April and 7.2% lower than May 2024. This unexpected downturn contradicts typical seasonal patterns where May imports usually increase as retailers prepare for summer and fall demand.
While imports remain 4.3% above pre-pandemic May 2019 levels, the significant month-over-month drop raises concerns about broader economic trends. The 4.3% growth over 2019 figures fails to mask the warning signs embedded in May's sharp decline when viewed against global economic developments and shifting consumption patterns.
China's Export Collapse: 28.5% Year-over-Year Drop
Chinese container exports to the U.S. plummeted to 637,001 TEUs in May—a 20.8% monthly decline and 28.5% annual decrease. This represents the most severe monthly contraction since March 2020, directly reflecting heightened trade tensions and tariff policies between the world's two largest economies.
China's share of U.S. container imports fell to 29.3%, the lowest in over two years, as supply chain diversification accelerates. Major West Coast ports saw particularly severe declines, with Long Beach (31.6%) and Los Angeles (29.9%) experiencing the steepest drops from April.
Port Dynamics: East Coast Gains Amid West Coast Struggles
The import decline revealed shifting port dynamics, with East Coast and Gulf Coast ports gaining market share while West Coast ports suffered from reduced Chinese imports. This redistribution signals an ongoing supply chain migration toward alternative logistics solutions.
Despite lower volumes, port delays at Los Angeles and Long Beach worsened—potentially due to operational inefficiencies, labor issues, or other supply chain bottlenecks that increase transportation costs and prompt shippers to seek alternative routes.
Expert Analysis: Tariffs Reshaping Trade Flows
Descartes analyst Jackson Wood notes that after months of import growth and April's front-loading surge, new tariffs began significantly impacting May trade volumes. While a 90-day tariff reduction agreement may provide temporary relief, multiple factors suggest continued weakness in Chinese imports:
- Companies reevaluating procurement strategies amid rising landed costs
- Changes to U.S. de minimis regulations increasing trade costs for low-value Chinese goods
- Ongoing supply chain diversification efforts
Underlying Factors: A Complex Interplay
1. Trade Policy Uncertainty
Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and frequent tariff adjustments create operational uncertainty, affecting both short-term decisions and long-term investment plans across industries.
2. Rising Supply Chain Costs
Tariffs, transportation expenses, and labor costs collectively increase supply chain expenditures, eroding competitiveness and prompting strategic adjustments.
3. Demand Softening
Global economic slowdowns and weakening consumer demand contribute to reduced import volumes, particularly for discretionary purchases.
4. Geopolitical Risks
Heightened geopolitical tensions introduce additional trade uncertainties, requiring companies to develop contingency plans and diversified sourcing strategies.
Strategic Responses: Case Studies
Electronics Manufacturer Adaptation
One major Chinese electronics producer successfully mitigated tariff impacts by establishing Vietnamese and Indian production facilities while enhancing product innovation and brand development—maintaining U.S. market competitiveness despite trade barriers.
Apparel Retailer Adjustment
A U.S. clothing retailer reduced dependence on Chinese imports by strengthening partnerships with Southeast Asian manufacturers, implementing supply chain automation, and refining market segmentation strategies to address changing consumer preferences.
Future Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty
The May import decline reflects broader transformations in global trade patterns that will likely continue evolving:
- Regionalization: Trade flows may increasingly concentrate within geographic blocs as companies prioritize supply chain resilience
- Digitalization: Advanced technologies will transform trade documentation, logistics tracking, and customs processes
- Sustainability: Environmental considerations will gain prominence in sourcing and transportation decisions
While current conditions present significant challenges, they also create opportunities for companies to reassess operations, explore new markets, and develop more agile, diversified supply chains capable of withstanding future disruptions.