Price fluctuations have become commonplace in the electric heavy-duty truck market. Earlier this year, a new energy tractor equipped with a 350kWh battery was priced as high as 550,000 yuan ($77,000), but has since dropped to between 430,000 and 460,000 yuan — a reduction of nearly 100,000 yuan. This drastic price adjustment reflects intensifying competition that has driven more logistics companies to adopt electric trucks, with first-half sales reaching 28,000 units, a 141.78% year-over-year increase.
Will electric truck prices continue their steep decline in the second half? Industry analysis suggests prices will likely stabilize under the combined influence of multiple factors.
Governments have implemented policies to accelerate electric truck adoption. On July 31, China's Ministry of Transport and Ministry of Finance announced subsidies of up to 140,000 yuan for replacing diesel trucks meeting National III emission standards or below with qualifying new energy commercial vehicles. With these subsidies, the purchase price of a three-axle electric tractor could fall to between 315,000 and 375,000 yuan, demonstrating the significant role of government support in reducing final costs.
The electric truck sector has experienced extreme price volatility this year as manufacturers slashed prices to gain market share, compressing profits to minimal levels or even losses for some original equipment manufacturers. The "race to the bottom" in new energy heavy trucks has particularly impacted funding for technological development. A July policy document explicitly warned against "cutthroat competition" while establishing guidelines for healthy market competition, suggesting the price war may soon end as the industry shifts focus toward technological advancement and reasonable profitability.
Meanwhile, power battery prices are stabilizing after significant fluctuations. Key battery material costs like lithium carbonate have plummeted from their peak of 600,000 yuan per metric ton to approximately 100,000 yuan, with reduced volatility. This long-term stabilization in battery production costs will directly contribute to more consistent electric truck pricing.
Considering these factors — including policy support, subsidies, market demand, and technological progress — electric heavy-duty truck prices will likely stabilize in the second half. While gradual price reductions may continue long-term, the current market conditions make dramatic price drops increasingly improbable. Looking ahead, growing demand for electric trucks should support steady industry development and more mature pricing structures.
