As the global economic landscape continues to evolve, overseas warehouses—a critical infrastructure for cross-border e-commerce—are experiencing unprecedented opportunities and challenges. These changes are driven not only by the rapid rise of emerging e-commerce platforms but also by increasingly stringent cross-border policies worldwide.
Take the case of one overseas warehouse operator who manages approximately 30,000 square meters of storage space, processing an average of 8,000 orders daily. Facing impending tax increases and policy adjustments, he has already decided to expand his facilities preemptively. The U.S. market is witnessing particularly strong demand for overseas warehousing, with projections indicating an addition of about 2 million square meters of storage space by the end of 2024—a clear testament to the sector's rapid growth.
On one hand, heavier tax burdens on cross-border e-commerce, especially the elimination of duty-free privileges for goods under $800, have deepened sellers' reliance on overseas warehouses. Many cross-border merchants now opt to ship products to overseas warehouses first, enabling quicker inventory replenishment and better responsiveness to market fluctuations. Industry surveys show that about half of Chinese cross-border e-commerce sellers currently use overseas warehouses, with this proportion expected to grow steadily in coming years.
Meanwhile, overseas warehouses are continuously adapting their operational models and business strategies to meet shifting market demands. However, behind this apparent prosperity lies significant profitability challenges. Despite robust demand, fierce competition has left many operators struggling with razor-thin margins—some joke that "the profit per order can't even buy a cup of coffee." The past decade saw a flood of new market entrants, creating oversupply conditions. While the COVID-19 pandemic brought a temporary surge in value during 2020, the aftermath intensified competition and further squeezed profits.
Compounding these challenges, overseas warehouses face rising operational costs—particularly in storage fees and labor—forcing many to adopt price-cutting strategies for survival. The resulting price wars have made already slim profit margins even more precarious.
The new 2024 tax policies have introduced considerable market turbulence while presenting fresh opportunities. Several e-commerce platforms are shifting toward semi-hosted models that encourage sellers to stock goods in overseas warehouses, but this brings new complexities. Potential price increases from the tax regime may require sellers to reassess inventory strategies and market demand to avoid overstocking risks. The elimination of small-value exemptions and possible tax hikes could also impact logistics timelines, potentially accelerating adoption of semi-hosted models that enable more local shipments.
Looking ahead, market uncertainty persists. Both sellers and warehouse operators must adapt swiftly to new realities, staying attuned to market dynamics while flexibly adjusting strategies to maintain competitiveness. As these policy changes take effect, they may ultimately push the industry toward upgrading—prompting deeper exploration of service quality and operational efficiency. In this environment, only those overseas warehouses that strategically optimize their layouts and resource allocation will emerge as long-term winners.
