As orders and shipments continued to rise through June, the logistics sector demonstrated robust market vitality with its second consecutive month of growth. But what does this upward trend truly signify? The newly released Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) provides crucial insights into the current state of the industry.
The LMI, developed collaboratively by research teams from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, University of Nevada Reno, Florida Atlantic University, and Rutgers University with support from the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), tracks eight key components of the logistics sector. These include inventory levels and costs, warehousing capacity, utilization rates, as well as transportation capacity, utilization, and pricing.
Key Metrics Show Mixed Signals
June's LMI reading of 60.7 marked a 1.3% increase from May's 59.4 . This represents only the third time the index has surpassed the 60 threshold since July 2022, with particularly strong performance in 2025 after failing to reach this level in 2023 and 2024.
The growth was primarily driven by expanding inventory levels, which saw an 8.3% monthly increase to 59.8 . The report noted that tariff considerations likely influenced this surge, with early June readings reaching 67.4 as importers capitalized on favorable conditions before declining to 52.2 later in the month.
"Inventory costs reached 80.9 in June, marking a 2.5% increase and the first time above 80 since October 2022," the report stated. "This pressure has begun impacting warehousing capacity, which fell 2.2% to 47.8 ."
Transportation Sector Presents Contradictions
The transportation sector revealed contrasting trends. While transportation capacity declined 2.3% to 52.4 —the lowest reading since October and now in contraction territory—transportation prices rose 1.1% to a healthy 62.0 . Transportation utilization showed modest growth of 0.3% , maintaining at 52.9 without contraction since July 2023.
Sustainability Concerns and Market Uncertainty
Despite June's strong performance, analysts question whether the LMI can maintain this momentum. The report highlights a disconnect between current demand levels and seasonal patterns when examining year-to-date supply chain activity.
While short-term indicators appear positive, long-term demand remains uncertain, particularly given high U.S. inventory levels and ambiguous future trade policies that have created market hesitancy.
Recent developments have further clouded the outlook. Trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada stalled over Canada's proposed tax on American digital services companies, while impending temporary tariff eliminations are creating additional pressure on the sector.
As the logistics industry navigates this complex landscape, the ability to secure favorable trade agreements will have profound implications not just for supply chains, but for financial markets and the broader economy as well.