Amid significant challenges to global supply chains, the recent U.S.-China trade agreement has emerged as a glimmer of hope. However, panic waves continue to disrupt the transportation sector, raising critical questions about maintaining supply chain stability in this volatile environment.
The 90-day trade deal signed on May 12 has already significantly boosted Chinese demand for U.S. goods, with analysts projecting this trend will continue through June. This demand surge stems from previously backlogged orders and the approaching peak shopping season, with overall logistics volumes expected to keep growing. By late June, shipping capacity is projected to fully recover.
Shipping Lines Resume Operations
Recent data shows a marked decline in blank sailings, with the overall cancellation rate dropping to 15% — a 10% decrease from last week. This rate is expected to fall further to 10% during the week of June 9, representing the lowest level since late March. Multiple shipping companies have announced plans to reinstate previously suspended routes this week (Week 22):
| Shipping Company/Alliance | Service Route | Suspension & Restoration Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| Ocean Alliance | PRX / CP1 / PCS1 / PRX / AAS2 | Resuming Week 22 |
| Ocean Alliance | SEA3 / PSX | Weeks 18-23 |
| Ocean Alliance | CPS / AAC2 / HBB / PCN3 | Resuming Week 22 |
| Ocean Alliance | CBX / ECC3 / AWE7 / CBX | Resuming Week 25 |
| MSC | ORIENT | Resuming Week 23 |
| ZIM | ZX2 | Resuming Week 22 |
Immediate Supply Chain Impacts
The effects began materializing in mid-May (Weeks 20-22). For shipments from major Chinese ports like Yantian, Ningbo, and Shanghai, the suspended voyages typically manifest as capacity shortages 1-2 weeks after initial disruptions, potentially reducing order allocations by up to 50%. This makes cargo booking more difficult while increasing risks of delays, rollovers, and cost escalations.
Consumers will soon feel these disruptions. While most summer merchandise has reached store shelves, back-to-school and holiday season inventories face significant risks. Products heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing — particularly toys (77% of U.S. imports come from China through 2025) — may experience widespread shortages. Even production shifts to alternative countries cannot match China's scale, likely resulting in supply gaps and price increases that could leave many families with fewer gifts this Christmas.
While the trade deal presents new opportunities, the reduction in blank sailings continues exerting pressure on global supply chains. How businesses navigate these challenges while meeting customer demand will prove critical in coming months.